Scientists studying medium and large earthquakes in California, USA, have detected detectable changes in the local magnetic field that occur two or three days before the earthquake.
The investigation found that The magnetic field change signal is weak but statistically significant, And seismologists hope their technique can eventually be improved to help predict earthquakes. The research was recently published in the specialized journal Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth.
The study was carried out by QuakeFinder, the earthquake research division of Excellent solutionsSystems engineering services company.
Investigation, which examines precursors of electromagnetic earthquakes covering major faults in California from 2005 to 2018, Indicates that these are predictive indicators of the Earth’s magnetic field They can be identified several days before the earthquake.
The document is called An algorithmic framework for investigating the temporal relationship between magnetic field pulses and applied earthquakes in Californiacompleted peer review and received final acceptance for immediate online publication and will appear in print in the December issue (Volume 133) of the peer-reviewed journal. Computers and Earth Sciences.
According to the company, to the best of its knowledge, This is the largest study ever published on the precursors of electromagnetic earthquakes “It’s a very exciting development for our team that has worked hard to collect and analyze this data for over 15 years.”
The data provides indications of this Earthquake precursors are present in the magnetic field to a statistically significant degreeand this paper represents a major step forward in the challenge for QuakeFinder to conclusively prove the existence of these initial signals and then work toward the isolation that allows prediction of individual earthquakes.
The processed data set exceeds previously published research by more than an order of magnitude and suggests, with 98.6% confidence, That the magnetic field shows preliminary behavior in the period from four to 12 days before earthquakes. While this approach is not accurate enough to predict individual earthquakes, our research indicates that results will improve with better signal processing.
It’s a modest sign,” said Dan Schneider, one of the study’s authors. “We don’t claim that this signal is there before every earthquake, but it’s very interesting.”
By comparison, earthquake early warning (EEW) systems based on seismic observations currently provide – best – Seconds of warning before earthquakes.
According to QuakeFinde, his work aims to transform The ultimate earthquake forecast from a sci-fi dream to an achievable goal Its engineers continue their work to perform statistically valid research beyond single earthquakes or small samples.
Schneider will present these results at a conference American Geophysical Union (AGU) in San Francisco on Friday, December 13, 2019.
Although it has always been controversial, the idea that the magnetic field can change before earthquakes has changed It has been around for some time. United States Geological Survey (USGS) It states that “despite decades of work, There is no convincing evidence for the electromagnetic precursors of earthquakes.”
Chile also has scholars who have worked in this field. One of them is Enrique Cordaro, a physicist and academic from the University of Chile, who has been studying the Earth’s magnetic field for more than 50 years.
In 2019, he conducted research published in Advances in space researchCordaro and his team discovered two things: The geomagnetic field (found over the South American region) has been shown to vary greatly, prior to the great earthquakes. And that when measuring the magnetic field of the South American region, they realized that it weakens if you compare Pottery and Puerto Montt. The latter is proven when comparing the magnetic field of this sector of the country, with the magnetic field of other places in the world.
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