According to the latest consensus forecast from the New Zealand Institute for Economic Research (NZIER), the New Zealand economy is seen as resilient over the next year, but growth may be revised downwards for 2025 and 2026.
Additional comments
As more fixed-term mortgages increase in value over the next twelve months, the moderating effect of interest rate increases on economic activity will be evident in the coming years.
Household consumption has been revised downward beyond 2024.
Although exports are a strong starting point for growth, Export growth projections have been revised downwards For several years after 2023.
Consensus forecasts for GDP growth show mixed prospects for the coming years. Annual GDP growth for the years ending March 2023 and March 2024 has been revised to 3.1% and 1.1%., respectively. however, Growth projections beyond 2024 have been revised downwards.
Annual CPI is expected to decline to 3.4% in 2024 and 2.2% in 2026.Still above the midpoint of the RBNZ inflation target (2%).
The outlook for interest rates has again been revised upwards across the project horizon.
“Typical beer advocate. Future teen idol. Unapologetic tv practitioner. Music trailblazer.”