More analysts expect the end of Banxico’s bull cycle in May

Mexico City – more and more analysts are becoming convinced of this The bullish cycle of Banco de México (Banxico) It would come to an end in May.

Half of the 32 analysts consulted by the Citibanamex Outlook Survey (ECE) consider that The interest rate will be stopped at 11.25%.which is the level at which the central bank would have ended The upward cycle started in June 2021.

The poll indicated that 15 analysts do not expect a rate hike at the next monetary policy meeting on May 18.; Two weeks ago, the ECE showed 10 analysts believed the institute would have reached the end of the benchmark rally cycle.

Actinver, Barclays, Bradesco BBI, BX+, Epicurus Investments, Finamex, GBM, HSBC, JP Morgan, Monex, Morgan Stanley, Natixis, Oxford Economics, TD Securities and UBS all expect Banxico to stop raising interest rates in May.

This group of analysts predicts that the next move by the central bank will be a rate cut; HSBC, Monex and Oxford Economics expect this to happen as soon as September When the interest rate cut begins.

Meanwhile, 16 analysts expect the next move in the interest rate target An increase of 25 basis points, bringing the benchmark to 11.50%.

The average forecast for the monetary policy rate at the end of 2023 decreased to 11.25% from 11.38% in the previous two weeks, while by the end of 2024 it remained unchanged at 8.50%.

Consensus expects it The annual general inflation rate fell to 6.3% in the first half of Aprilwhile for April as a whole, analysts estimate the annual inflation rate at 6.3%.

Average rating of The annual general inflation rate at the end of 2023 fell to 5.13% from 5.18% Fifteen days ago, while in 2024 it decreased slightly to 4.01% from 4.02% previously.