Solar panels and wind turbines are today’s solution for the Ford T

Last month, the International Energy Agency published its second report Net zero roadmap, which sets out a way for the global economy to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement. The first edition of the report, 2021, pThe starting point for an organization known more for its detailed data than its standard vision of the future. This year’s roadmap finds no immediate progress on emissions, but offers a “brighter note”. As the authors state in their introduction, “The path to 1.5°C has narrowed, but the growth of clean energy keeps it open.”

Behind this growth, or perhaps within it, lies the expansion of what the IEA calls “massive technologies”: solar PV, electric cars, residential heat pumps, and stationary battery storage. These products benefit from “standardization and short lead times,” meaning they can be produced in the millions or hundreds of millions, and manufacturers can release new and improved versions at a rapid pace.

For example, between 2015 (when the Paris Agreement was signed) and 2022, solar PV added capacity equivalent to all installed power plants in Europe, and heat pump sales increased to a level “almost equivalent to all residential heating capacity in Russia.” ”

These milestones are impressive, but even for those steeped in energy data, they are also a bit empty, with no indication of anything external to energy itself. We know that mass-produced clean energy technologies are growing rapidly, but how does this compare to other sectors and other time periods?

This year, the International Energy Agency is providing some useful benchmarks, comparing electric car batteries, solar modules, and wind turbines with three innovative technologies from the past: American airplanes produced during World War II, and the Ford Model T automobile from 1910 to 1920. And electric generators. Turbine from 1970 to 1980.

The report compares these groups based on two factors: the average annual increase in implementation of each technology during its key decade and the amount annual costs decreased during the same decade. The result is complex, but useful.

For example, electric car batteries compare favorably with their fastest-growing historical counterpart: American aircraft during World War II. Solar modules grew more rapidly between 2010 and 2020 than gas turbines did during the 1970s, but less quickly than Model T sales expanded a century ago. Onshore wind power has grown at about the same rate as gas turbines, and offshore wind power has grown slightly faster.

However, in terms of cost reduction, batteries and solar are clear winners over their historical counterparts. Battery cost reductions over the past decade have averaged nearly 20% per year, and solar cost reductions have not been far behind. US aircraft costs fell about 15% per year, which is slower than the decline in solar or battery costs, while Model T costs fell about 10% per year between 1910 and 1920. Again, wind technologies compare similarly to the previous gas turbine market.

This comparison should encourage, so to speak, those who hope to deploy these mass-produced technologies on a larger scale. They are already on the path to innovations that dramatically changed the way people moved (and fought) 80 or 100 years ago.

It also poses a challenge to the move towards net-zero greenhouse gas emissions – and a warning.

the challenge

The challenge is to continue to innovate while achieving reductions in solar and battery costs and even higher levels of annual deployment. In this case, the IEA’s data cut actually favors batteries and solar, which from 2020 through this year will have average annual growth rates of 72% and 39%, respectively, according to BloombergNEF’s market forecasts. However, wind power is weak in comparison, with a compound growth rate of only 3% and lower one-year growth (2022) compared to the previous year.

The caveat here is that “there is a lot more to do,” as the IEA puts it. This is partly due to the robustness of current energy systems, whether cars with a lifespan of more than a decade or a thermal power plant with a lifespan of 30 to 50 years. As the authors write: “The slow pace of inventory turnover for most types of energy-related equipment means that there is a large gap between a technology becoming dominant in new deployments and a technology becoming dominant in inventory.” General Operations.

This condition then means that two things must triumph. One is the relentless mathematics of increasing installations of the new, which eventually forces existing systems into retirement. The second is a policy and commitment to not only publish what is needed, but also remove what is not needed.

Market and politics can embrace the logic of large unified technologies in their own way, but ultimately they aim to achieve the same goal.