The computer reveals that Covid mutated due to human behavior

In the social sciences or experimental physics, the situation in which the analyzed phenomenon is affected by the presence of the observer or researcher himself is known as the “observer paradox.” Something similar could happen with Covid-19. That is, what if, paradoxically, human behavior toward the virus caused its emergence? leap In different breeds?

A surprising but at the same time fascinating question, which has led to research by a team from Nagoya University in Japan, which was published today in the prestigious journal Nature Communications. Using artificial intelligence technology and mathematical models, the team of scientists revealed this Human behaviorSuch as quarantine and isolation measures, affect the development of new strains of Covid-19.

Coronaviruses are known to be genetically more stable than viruses such as influenza or HIV. However, the SARS-CoV-2 virus evolved to become more transmissible earlier in its life cycle. In addition, we know that Covid has been producing new variants such as Delta, Ómicron, or the substrain of the latter, called Eris or EG5. This is not entirely an exception. As with any other living organism, viruses evolve over time. Those with survival advantages become dominant in the gene pool.

The question is why? Why has the Covid-19 virus mutated to this extent? The answer is due to many factors. But the study in question indicates that environmental factors influenced this development, including human behavior. He demonstrates this by isolating patients and drugging them Lockdowns to control the outbreakHumans can alter virus evolution in complex ways.

The important concept in this interaction is Burden or viral load, which refers to the amount or concentration of the virus in each milliliter of body fluids. In SARS-CoV-2, high viral load in respiratory secretions increases the risk of droplet transmission. Hence, viral load is related to the possibility of transmitting the virus to other people. So, for example, a virus like Ebola has an exceptionally high viral load, while the common cold has a low viral load.

However, viruses must perform a careful balancing act, as increasing the maximum viral load can be beneficial, but also dangerous to their survival. Excessive viral load can make people sick (and even die). Virus transmission To others.

Covid became more “stealth” as people locked themselves in

Along these lines, the research group led by Professor Shingo Iwami, from the Graduate School of Science at Nagoya University, identified trends using mathematical models with an artificial intelligence component to analyze a wide range of published clinical data prior to its work. They thus discovered that the SARS-CoV-2 variants that were most successful at spreading had an earlier and higher peak in viral load.

That is: in the first wave of the epidemic, they had great transmission power from the moment they entered the body and remained there for a longer period. However, as the virus evolved from the pre-alpha variant to the delta variant, the strains had a shorter duration of infection. The researchers also found that it reduced the incubation period of the virus and increased its infection rate The rate of infection without symptoms Recorded as mutated. It’s as if it’s done More “stealth” where the human hid.

The results showed a clear difference. As the virus evolved from the Wuhan strain to the Delta strain, they found Five-fold increase in peak viral load (spread more easily) and a 1.5-fold increase in the number of days before the viral load reaches its peak. You may be interested: Are people who have had Covid more likely to develop Alzheimer’s disease?

Iwami and colleagues suggest that human behavioral changes in response to the virus, designed to reduce transmission, were increasing selective pressure on the virus. This has caused the emergence of the SARS-CoV-2 virus It is transmitted primarily during asymptomatic periods and before symptoms appear, which occurs early in the infectious cycle. As a result, the peak viral load advances to this period to spread more effectively in the early stages before symptoms appear.

When evaluating public health strategies in response to COVID-19 and any potential pathogens future pandemicIt is necessary to consider the impact of changes in human behavior on patterns of virus evolution. “We hope that immune stress from vaccines and/or previous infections will drive the evolution of SARS-CoV-2,” Iwami reveals. “but, Our studio I found that Human behavior can also contribute to the evolution of the virus “In a more complex way, which indicates the need to re-evaluate the evolution of the virus.”

In conclusion, their study indicates the possibility of new strains of coronavirus evolving due to a complex interaction between clinical symptoms and human behavior. The group hopes that their research will accelerate the creation of testing systems for adaptive therapies, and effective detection and isolation strategies against viruses in the future.