- Despite the lack of follow-through, NZD/USD is in a positive bias for the third day in a row.
- A fall in New Zealand’s (NZ) two-year inflation expectations is limiting the pair’s upside.
- Expectations of further interest rate cuts from the central bank undermine the USD and should provide support.
The NZD/USD pair recovered the psychological 0.6000 mark during the Asian session on Thursday, attracting some dip buying following the previous day’s modest pullback from a two-and-a-half-week high. This marks the third consecutive day of positive movement and is supported by a mix of factors.
The New Zealand dollar (NZD) was supported by better-than-expected employment data on Wednesday, which reduced the prospect of a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). However, the upward move started to lose traction after a survey showed that New Zealand’s (NZ) two-year inflation expectations have fallen to 2.03% in the third quarter of 2024 from 2.33% seen in the second quarter. This, along with China’s economic woes, acts as a headwind for the New Zealand dollar.
However, the decline in the NZD/USD pair was offset by a slight decline in the US dollar (USD). Soft U.S. macroeconomic data suggest the world’s largest economy is slowing faster than initially expected. This, in turn, fueled speculation about further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and fueled further declines in US Treasury yields, which in turn have capped the USD’s recent recovery from multi-month lows.
The above-mentioned fundamental background tilts in favor of bullish traders and supports the chances of a fresh bullish move in the short term. The risk of further escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East may deter traders from placing aggressive bullish bets on the NZD/USD pair. Traders are now awaiting the release of weekly US initial jobless claims data for short-term prospects in the North American session.
Economic indicator
RBNZ Inflation Expectations (QoQ)
This inflation indicator is released Reserve Bank of New Zealand and provides decisions on economic expectations and macroeconomic basis among company directors. A higher outlook for the economy will put pressure on inflation, so it is seen as the first step towards raising interest rates. A higher reading is positive for the New Zealand dollar, while a lower growth outlook is negative and positive for the currency.
Last post:
Thursday August 08, 2024 03:00
Frequency:
quarter
Current:
2.03%
Dear:
–
Previous:
2.33%
Fountain:
Reserve Bank of New Zealand
“Typical beer advocate. Future teen idol. Unapologetic tv practitioner. Music trailblazer.”