Bloomberg – The dollar is on track for its longest streak of daily gains in a year, but Kit Jukes of Société Générale SA says a ceiling could be on the horizon for the currency if the US government shutdown lasts more than a week or two.
Congress was unable to reach an agreement to avoid a partial shutdown on October 1. Which will cost federal contractors up to $1.9 billion per day in lost and delayed revenueThis compounds concerns about rising long-term interest rates and continued high inflation.
“It will be a prolonged government shutdown.”It is enough to disrupt the cycle of rising yields and the dollar, and the economic data is still goodsaid Jukes, chief currency strategist at Société Générale in London.
This scenario is expected to cause the index to decline by 3%. Bloomberg Dollar Spot At the end of the year. The index rose for the sixth consecutive day on Wednesday, reaching the highest level since December. The strength, fueled by interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve and the outperformance of the US economy versus its major peers, is reverberating across global markets and putting pressure on authorities in Asia to move to protect your coins.
For Gox, This would mark only the beginning of a decline for the dollar, which is expected to gain strength in 2024 as the Federal Reserve begins to lower interest rates.
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He said that any safe haven demand after the government shutdown would only help the dollar for a short period.
He said: “It seems that the closure will strengthen the dollar, but in the end it will weaken it, because the government will be forced to move away from fiscal generosity.” “It was fiscal policy that provided the money that kept the U.S. economy growing longer than other countries.”
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