Ancelotti cannot find a penalty kick taker and Madrid’s success takes away from the elite | Football | Sports

When Benzema went to Arabia, he left Real Madrid with two open questions. Strangely, Ancelotti seems to have come before what seemed more complicated, which was the disappearance of the goals contributed by the Frenchman. However, what seemed simpler, finding another penalty taker, remains unknown. Luka Modric’s refereeing on Tuesday in Berlin exacerbated a problem that had been going on since the start of the season, and…

When Benzema went to Arabia, he left Real Madrid with two open questions. Strangely, Ancelotti seems to have come before what seemed more complicated, which was the disappearance of the goals contributed by the Frenchman. However, what seemed simpler, finding another penalty taker, remains unknown. Luka Modric’s ruling on Tuesday in Berlin exacerbated an ongoing problem since pre-season, which has become tangled with misunderstandings and doubts.

With the Croatian, Real Madrid have taken four penalty kicks since July and have not scored any, something so rare that it has happened only four other times in the last ten seasons, according to Opta’s records: at Valencia in 2014, and at Betis in 2015., To Sevilla in 2017 and to Getafe in 2018. One of the greatest researchers of penalty kick dynamics, London School of Economics professor Ignacio Palacios Huerta, puts up extremely rare numbers: “In general, a professional player misses 20% of penalty kicks. Two consecutive times is 4%. Failure four times in a row, 1.6 per 1000″.

This event, far from a statistical anomaly, indicates something deeper, according to Palacios Huerta, who advises several English clubs and the Federation: “I would say the event has a very low probability of happening, 1.6 times.” This is most likely a sign that you have a problem. Even more so when there are four different players.

The pitcher jig is common on these lines. Valencia, Sevilla and Getafe also used four shots in a series of four misses. Only at Betis was he himself, Rubén Castro.

Madrid’s last two shifts have gone better, and they settled instantly. When Cristiano Ronaldo left in the summer of 2018, Sergio Ramos took over. From the time he inherited the job until he left the club, in the summer of 2021, regardless of penalties, Real Madrid scored a maximum of 29 penalty kicks available to them (18 for the centre-back, nine for Benzema, one for Bale and one for Bale (one for Danger).

When Ramos left, he inherited Benzema, with Ancelotti on the bench. In its two seasons, Real Madrid executed 34 penalty kicks, of which 26 were scored, with a success rate of 76.5%, which is in line with expectations. In addition to Benzema, Rodrigo (three out of three) and Modric (three out of four) were right.

Now without the Frenchman, Ancelotti chose not to continue with his successful shooters from the previous stage, but instead began to trust in Vinicius. The Brazilian was emerging as the most heavy and projected player in the team, and the Italian chose him, despite his little experience – he had scored a goal just a few days ago for Brazil, scoring one – and despite the doubts that raised his performance in training, where he did not show very promising proportions. . She made her debut against Barcelona on July 29 in Dallas and hit the crossbar.

The coach’s plan was for the Brazilian to continue with maximum penalties, but when they had the next opportunity, on August 25 in Balaidos, Vinicius was no longer on the field due to injury. Rodrigo shot the ball and missed, angering Ancelotti, who had other plans: “There is no freedom. I don’t know what happened. I told Valverde that Luka had to throw the ball. I don’t know what happened between them, but the one who had to take the kick The penalty wasn’t there, it was Vinicius, so they chose Rodrigo.”

Before the next match, against Getafe, the Italian publicly announced something new: “The first could be Joselu, the second is Modric, the third is Vinicius.” But this statement did not end the entanglements. The next day, there was another penalty kick and Modric caught the ball in front of Joselu, although he did not shoot it, because VAR overturned the decision. Ancelotti tried to explain the chaos: Joselu started shooting. “It’s a trap, because whoever catches the ball can be harassed. So whoever catches the ball is not always the one who shoots it.”

On October 7, with Osasuna leading 4-0 at the Bernabéu, it was time for Joselu, who had up until then scored 68% of his penalties. He was stopped by Sergio Herrera. This was the third mistake in a series that Modric completed on Tuesday. This event left Ancelotti confused, as he said: “Looking for a reason is very complicated.” “His training is not that simple either, because the penalty is an environmental problem. We are trying with Bellingham, with Rodrygo, with Vinicius, with Joselu…” A new name has just emerged, the Englishman who has fixed everything this season and who has only taken two penalties in His career with Borussia Dortmund: two successes.

Ancelotti has pointed out several times the difficulties of replicating the environmental conditions surrounding a penalty kick in training, but Palacios Huerta believes his line points to other shortcomings: “If penalty kicks are analyzed using the Nash model [de teoría de juegos]“It turns out that the direction of the shots on the four penalty kicks was quite predictable, which is consistent with the idea that there might be a problem,” he explains. “But it’s not all bad news, it’s a problem that can be solved.” Under the Italian, Real Madrid scored 26 out of 37 penalty kicks, a success rate of 70.3%. Meanwhile, Barcelona received a rating of 78.6% correct; City 78.9%; Paris Saint-Germain 80%; And Bayern 84%.

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