Joe Biden promised it would be the calm after the storm. His arrival in the White House raised expectations – exaggerated but understandable – after four years of navigating the chaos and uncertainty that Donald Trump’s presidency meant.
During the election campaign did not give much. In fact, at that time the only candidate with a clear platform and specific policy proposals was Bernie Sanders. Biden only presented himself as an “anti-Trump,” the only one capable of defeating him, the conciliator who would return the country to the path of “normality.” As if trampism was just an accident or an arc that could easily be erased.
Biden has also been presented as the carrier of change that should rebuild America. Some have even likened him to Franklin Delano Roosevelt, who was not only the president with the longest term – 12 years and 4 elections – but, with his New Deal, led the country out of the Great Depression of the 1930s. A stage of greater prosperity in its history – the post-war period – through a radical reform with the state’s regulation and management of the economy as the cornerstone. The far right has come to describe Biden as a socialist, a ridiculous idea that can only be explained by the polarization and oversimplification of political debate, combined with the profound ignorance of millions of people.
He had a constituency stemming from opposition to Trump and a kind of “Union for Denial”. In order to maintain its support, it has had to act in a way that meets a vast system of demands, aimed at changing the course of the country – away from the previous administration – and effectively managing the deep crisis it is going through.
In his nine months in office, he was a popularity index Biden has fallen from 53% to 44%, according to the average of polls provided by the FiveThirtyEight Project. The unresolved health crisis, the turbulent withdrawal from Afghanistan, the immigration crisis on the border with Mexico, internal conflicts in Congress, and the inability to approve major projects on his agenda all contributed to a loss of confidence in his administration.
The number of cases and deaths from COVID-19 remains high, in a scenario where vaccination is stagnant due to resistance to various anti-vaccine movements.Defending “individual freedom” at any cost includes the freedom not to wear masks, even if they endanger their lives and the lives of others. There were even protests from mothers and fathers who refused to allow their children to wear masks in schools.
On the other hand, Biden had to pay for the broken dishes in Afghanistan, although the withdrawal was planned from the previous government. This could have geopolitical consequences with implications for external expectations towards Latin America and of course towards Cuba, although this is an issue that deserves separate analysis.
The economic crisis is also a reality, with GDP dropping 3.5% last year – the largest since 1946 – from which they have yet to recover. According to CNBC’s Pan American Economic Survey, there is also a decline in opinions about his handling of the economy, with only 40% agreeing and 54% disapproving, up 7 points from July. A slim majority of Americans still support his handling of the pandemic, but the margin has narrowed. 45% disapproval of that administration, compared to 38% in July. Inflation, along with the coronavirus, was the biggest concern of Americans surveyed.
In this year so far There have been 255 worker strikes, 43 of which occurred in October, according to the Cornell University tracker. Experts blame a confluence of labor market conditions: record levels of people leaving their jobs and a shortage of workers taking low-paying jobs. The continuing decline in job quality, the trend toward stagnant wages, and growing inequality must also be included in the analysis.
The past few weeks have been particularly difficult for the Biden administration, due to the paralysis of Congress on the infrastructure project. The progressive bloc promised to vote against it if it is considered in the House without a simultaneous vote on a more comprehensive reconciliation bill, which would include investment in social programs and measures to tackle climate change. This option has been blocked by what progressives call “corporate democracy,” who care more about pleasing their campaign donors than their audience.
This phenomenon is not new in the United States. A study published in 2014 by Martin Gillins and Benjamin I Page asserted that economic elites have more influence in shaping public policies than the interests of ordinary citizens. It is the result of its electoral system and businessmen making legislative decisions. This is why issues such as raising taxes on the rich are so difficult to pass in Congress.
In addition, one must consider the effects of partisan polarization on legislative stagnation, which must be understood as part of a broader phenomenon of polarization in society. Any observer of US reality can note that the partisan struggle has become more intense in recent years. Issues such as taxes, gun control, immigration, and health reform are discussed extensively and steadily in Congress without being reflected in the production of legislation in this regard.
This congressional stalemate could affect the November 2022 midterm elections, when the entire House and one-third of the Senate go to elections. Democrats may lose their already narrow majority, making it difficult for any Biden proposal to move forward. This, in turn, will affect the 2024 presidential election.
At the same time, there is a loss of confidence in the electoral system, which has been growing steadily since 2016 and fueled by Trump and his allegations of fraud in 2020. It has become a common practice, as we saw in the recent California referendum when Larry Elder claimed the election was rigged.
According to the Washington Post, Republicans have proposed or approved measures in at least 16 states that would transfer certain electoral powers from the governor, secretary of state, or other executive branch officials to the legislature. A bill in Arizona states that the legislature can “revoke the Secretary of State’s issuance or certification of elections” with a simple majority of votes. It is as if the scene is being prepared for possible chaos.
The United States is going through a deep political crisis. Warning signals may take a back seat in emergencies such as a health crisis or some media scandal, but they are there: the January 6 attack on the Capitol remains an unresolved problem; the emergence of ideological extremism and hate groups; political violence; Migration crisis. sustainable growth of inequality.
Biden’s presidency is still young. He has not yet completed a year in office. It is important to understand that he is also part of these “institutional Democrats”, a conservative who is accustomed to negotiating with Congress and defending the interests of the elites. The problem is that if the current crisis shows no signs of a solution, it is possible — and even likely — that Trumpism will return to the White House in 2024.
Taken from Cubadebate. by: Dalia Gonzalez Delgado
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