Ecuador elects a president in a climate of fear after the assassination

The assassination of candidate Fernando Villavicencio on August 9, by firing squad, shuffled the electoral map and left a mystery about the outcome of the election, as everything indicated that there would not be enough margin to avoid the ballot on October 15. .

The once peaceful South American country has in recent years become a hub of operations for foreign and domestic drug cartels who enforce a regime of terror with murder, kidnapping and extortion.

Added to the violence is an institutional crisis that kept the country without Congress for three months, when unpopular President Guillermo Lasso (right) decided to dissolve it and call early elections to avoid accountability in a political trial for corruption.

“Ecuadoreans will vote with three feelings: fear of insecurity (…), pessimism about the economic situation and distrust of the political class,” Santiago Kawascuy, a political science professor at the University of Ecuador, told AFP.

About 13.4 of the 18.3 million Ecuadorians must exercise compulsory voting between 07:00 and 17:00 local time (12:00 and 22:00 GMT) to elect the president and vice president, in addition to the 137 members of Congress who will complete the current vote. Four years scheduled to May 2025.

“Please take care of the country’s security, because there is a lot of violence,” Yolanda Cubilos told AFP in Quito.

– Presidential candidates –

The face of the late Villavicencio, a centrist former journalist who finished second in opinion polls before his assassination, will appear on the ballot papers along with seven other candidates, as they were already printed when he was shot by a Colombian man.

In his place in the running is journalist Cristian Zurita, his close friend who has also been threatened and partner in the investigations that uncovered major corruption scandals. One of them led to the sentencing of former socialist president Rafael Correa (2007-2017) to eight years in prison.

“Rest is a moral necessity (…) it means (to say) look, I will do everything in my power to honor your word, your conscience, your thoughts, your morals, your moral standing,” Zurita said, 53, in a recent interview with AFP.

By contrast, Luisa Gonzalez, 45, is contesting Delphine Correa and the only female candidate for the presidency. Despite Ecuador’s ban on publishing polls, Gonzalez is the favourite.

Cahwasky notes that the assassination “exacerbated the anti-problematic sentiment” represented by the deceased candidate.

Before the assassination, an opinion poll showed Villavicencio trailing Gonzalez and then ex-sniper and ex-paratrooper Jan Tobic (right), indigenous leader Yaco Perez (left) and former vice president Otto Sonnenholzner (right).

After the killing of Villavicencio, a new poll shows Gonzalez still ahead and Topic second.

Mourning and the state of exception

Ecuador has unveiled a brief campaign marred by political violence in which a mayor, a deputy candidate and a local leader were assassinated.

In the midst of drug violence, the theme number, 40, has emerged, bolstered by a segment calling for a strong hand against criminal gangs.

Nicknamed “Ecuadorian Bukele,” this former member of the French Foreign Legion plans to open more prisons following the example of the Salvadoran president.

Ecuador suffers from poverty (27%) in a dollar-based economy, where a quarter of the population works informally or is unemployed, and will see rare elections due to a state of emergency that seeks to reduce violence.

On the streets, violence leaves a record 26 murders per 100,000 inhabitants in 2022, almost double the previous year.

Political scientist Ariana Tanka notes the difference between “those who want a president with a strong hand to fight crime and others who prefer a president who strengthens the welfare state to prevent crime”.

Ecuadorians will also vote in a landmark referendum to limit oil exploitation in part of the Yasuni Amazon National Park, as the world seeks to reduce fossil fuels and mitigate global warming.