Fiscal Week: Bonds remained steady, but stocks and the dollar trimmed their positions

With only four operational wheels remaining before the transfer of leadership on December 10, financial activity has certainly developed Portfolio rearrangement and a lot of volatilityAlong with various versions of government actions, statements of future officials and confirmation of names that will hold key positions once in office. Javier Miley assuming the presidency.

For Argentine stocks, this has been a down week, an expected pause after the very positive performance left by the November balance (+40%). he Standard & Poor’s Merval On the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange registered in Five Wheels A Loss of 5.2% in pesos and 3.2% in dollarsThis is according to the “cash with settlement” equation implicit in the prices of Argentine settlement bonds on Wall Street.

The economist explained, “Local assets were intermittently taking rest periods, seeking to test profit-taking operations that were unable to gain a great deal of strength, given that positive expectations and pro-market signals continue to activate bets on every imaginary operation.” Gustavo Bear.

The Blue Chip Committee recorded gains of 330.6% in pesos in 2023 – twice domestic inflation – and 63.5% in dollars, Best performance in global comparisonabove the New York Nasdaq Technology Index, which is also experiencing a year of exceptional profits (+47.4%).

Last week, sovereign bond gains dominated. Among global stocks traded in dollars on Wall Street, there were gains for those short-term issues, such as Global 2029 (+4.6% weekly) and Global 2030 (+1.3%). The stock exchange’s bounce rate – under Argentine law – was 4.6 percent.

“The relative performance of the bonds shows the optimistic sentiment on Argentine debt on the part of investors, who prefer bonds that are considered less defensive. It is worth noting that the accelerated growth was more evident in the 30 and 29 dinar bonds, which are bonds of lower value. DurationThis can be explained by the statements of President-elect Javier Milley, emphasizing the fulfillment of future obligations. Personal portfolio investments.

he Risk country The JPMorgan report, which measures the interest rate gap between US Treasury bonds and their emerging counterparts, did not show significant differences for Argentina, which remains below 2,000 basis points, at its best levels since last August. Country risks were based on 1,982 points At the end of trading on Friday.

Meanwhile, the alt-dollar finished with a negative balance, despite being in much greater demand at the end of the week. he The free dollar ended trading at 955 pesos for sale, a decrease of 40 pesos, or 4%. Regarding Friday, November 24th. However, the “blue” dollar rebounded after it traded below 900 pesos at the trading average on Thursday the 30th.

The European dollar, at $935.63, was about 32.62 pesos or 3.4% lower than its value on Friday last week, while “cash with liquid” through bonds closed at $930.29, with a weekly decline of 4.1 percent.

One of the main factors driving this downward trend is the reformulation of expectations about the next government (Louis) Caputo He has already been confirmed as Minister of Economy by Miley himself. The presence of the former Finance Minister in the Council of Ministers appears to stop the idea of ​​dollarization, and focus efforts on a series of monetary and financial reforms and the stability and liberalization plan, which added to the president-elect’s journey. With the appointment of his minister in the United States, he gives signs of calm to the market. “Everything indicates that Miley and his team will first look for an orderly solution to the snowball of BCRA-paid liabilities, and avoid unleashing chaos,” BCRA research experts noted. IEP Group (Invest in the stock market).

he central bank Buys and sells alternate throughout the week, ending with Net negative balance of $139 million To participate in the wholesale market. Likewise, there was no sign of depreciation in the official exchange rate and the wholesale dollar closed on Friday at $361.10, with a weekly advance of 3.50 pesos (+1%), somewhat lower than the $3.65 increase recorded the previous week.