For the first time, next year we are entering the $100 trillion era. The planet’s wealth in 2022 will mark a new milestone, reaching the three-digit global GDP, measured in US currency (€88 trillion at the current exchange rate).
These are the data released last weekend by the Center for Economic and Trade Research (CEBR, for its English acronym), based in London that are in line with the International Monetary Fund’s forecast. in his last life World Economic Association schedule , the United States maintains the leadership and, contrary to the most pessimistic predictions, will remain on the throne at least until 2030, when it will presumably relinquish power to China.
The United States will continue to lead ahead of China at least until the end of this decade.
Without going far in time, there is another startling data that confirms the rise of Asia in recent decades, namely the overtaking already from 2022 for India, which will leave France behind, will be in place 6 and will reach the podium in ten years.
The rise in global GDP is occurring despite the effects of the pandemic, increasing disparities among the 191 countries under study. But on a macro level, the global economy has not declined as much as was thought in 2020 (-3.2% vs. -4.4%), and a year ago it could not have been imagined that more than half of the world’s population had made at least one injection. Vaccine dose. This will, for example, lead to the expected recovery by 2022 of 4.2%, when most large economies will regain the pre-Covid level.
However, a lot of the data should take into account the impact of inflation and the depreciation of the dollar. From an upward adjustment to nominal GDP in 2022, of about 7.1 percentage points, only 2.2 represents a real increase in wealth.
In the analysis, much space is given to the issue of climate change and how it might affect the global GDP. For example, the Bank of England calculated that environmental damage to insurance companies rose from the equivalent of €8 billion annually in the 1980s to €44 billion in the second decade of this century. Climate disasters totaling at least $900 million in the United States rose from an average of 7.1 in 1980-2020 to an average of 16.2 in 2016-2020 alone.
Hence the need to change the development paradigm and focus on technology. “We now believe that in advanced economies, the number of engineers and technology experts required in 10 years will be approximately twice as many employees as today.”
As for Spain, the relative decline in the rankings is unstoppable. If in 2006, before the real estate bubble burst, he was standing at the level higher ten (ninth place), in the next decade it will drop to 15th. “The combination of high public debt and large deficits paints a worrying outlook for financial stability in the coming years. This is due to the fact that Spain has legally committed to achieving climate neutrality in 2050, and this will lead to an increase in Public spending. Between 2022 and 2026, the CEBR projects that the annual GDP growth rate will drop to an average of 2.6%.”
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