Heading into his third season in the Majors, Dominican Julio Rodriguez is considered one of the best center fielders in baseball. He ranked second on the list Top 10 Centers from MLB Network Just like in my personal list. I even considered putting him in first place, a position I hope to see him hold soon.
After his dominant first season in 2022, which earned him American League Rookie of the Year honors, he had another strong year in 2023, which was perhaps even more impressive than we could have imagined at the time. It can be said that expectations, expectations and expectations are sky high for his third campaign, and rightfully so.
Here's a look at why Rodriguez's 2024 tournament looks so promising.
He had one of the most “valuable” seasons ever recorded by Statcast.
Rodriguez did something incredibly strange last year. He was the only player to hit at least 90 percent on hits, base runs and fielding last year. That's what we mean by a “valuably completed” season – being among the top 10 in terms of value generated on both sides of the game, as well as on the bases.
The simple fact that Rodriguez was the only player to do so last year, in a league loaded with talent, shows how good and consistent he is. We can further detail his unique style, thanks to research conducted by MLB's Jason Bernard.
Statcast has tracked these three components of value since 2016. In that span, only one player has been at least in the 90th percentile in all three categories: Mookie Betts. He did so in his AL MVP campaign in 2018, as well as in 2016 and 2020. Betts, who has six Gold Gloves and two Silver Sluggers to his name, is considered by many to be one of the most complete players in baseball. And now Rodriguez is part of this exclusive club.
What does that mean in real world terms? Think of a player who can hit a home run, make a tough catch, and take an extra base in a key situation. This is what the batting, fielding and base run values we take into account indicate.
It is the ability of the elite to change the fate of a game that should be evident again this year.
A combination of power and speed
Within these three categories of value is Rodriguez's power, which contributes to his hitting numbers and velocity, which in turn contributes to his fielding and base running. His power hitting rate of 52.5% ranked in the 96th percentile last year, while his sprint speed of 29.6 feet per second — near the elite number of 30 — also ranked in the 96th percentile.
He was one of three players to reach at least the 90th percentile in both run velocity and power-hit rate in 2023, along with Mike Trout and Fernando Tatis Jr. Rodriguez was in the same category in 2022 (97th percentile in run speed and 95th percentile). in energy multiplication rate). The only ones to do so that year were Trout and Byron Buxton.
And again, how will this combination reflect on the ground? Home runs and stolen bases.
With his 25th home run in 2023, the Loma de Cabrera native became the first player in major league history with at least 25 home runs and 25 stolen bases in each of the first two seasons of his career. And in 2022, he was the first to reach those numbers in his first year, meaning he was also the first to have the opportunity to repeat that in his second campaign.
He finished with 32 hits and 37 steals, just the fourth player with a 30-30 season in his age-22 or under season, joining Venezuela's Ronald Acuña Jr. (2019), Mike Trout (2012) and Alex Rodriguez (1998). ).
He hit 60 home runs and 60 steals in 284 games. The second fewest number of games it took to record those numbers. Only Eric Davis has done it faster (276). Rodriguez has proven this effective combination throughout his career, and will continue to do so.
The season was all over
Rodriguez reached another level in August, with five four-hitters in 10 games, and 17 strikeouts in four games, both records dating back to at least 1900. But it wasn't just those 10 games, or even that month.
He hit .308 in the second half, compared to .249 in the first half, leaving a slugging percentage of .578 in the second half, compared to .411 in the first. He scored 19 goals in 68 second-half games, after scoring 13 goals in his first 87 games.
Not only has Rodriguez improved on what he did in the first months of the year, he has been among the sport's best exponents. He ranked fifth among position players in WAR, according to FanGraphs, in the second half of the year. He is only bettered by Bates, Acuña, Freddie Freeman and Matt Olson.
The ability to adapt over the course of the season is another reason why Rodriguez's future is so promising.
There's no doubt how good Rodriguez's prospects are for 2024, given what he did last year. FanGraphs' Steamer pitching system gives him 33 stolen bases and 33 stolen bases, meaning he'll surpass 25 stolen bases and 25 stolen bases in each of his first three seasons.
Only time will tell, but one thing is clear: it will be a pleasure to see Rodriguez playing again.
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