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Hopes for a ceasefire in Gaza before Ramadan have diminished

A ceasefire agreement in Gaza that would allow the release of Israeli hostages and stop fighting for the first time in more than three months is unlikely to be reached before the start of Ramadan, which is what the Biden administration was aiming for, according to sources familiar with the negotiations. .

A diplomat familiar with the discussions said that negotiators had hoped to reach a draft agreement this week after days of meetings in Cairo, “but that will not happen,” describing the final days of the talks as “very hectic.”

Two American officials agreed that the prospects are not promising for Israel and Hamas to agree on a temporary truce with the start of Ramadan early next week.

“Hope is fading,” one American official said.

The failure to reach an agreement in the coming days will come weeks after President Joe Biden and administration officials said an agreement must be reached before Ramadan to avoid escalation of the five-month-old war. He warned Tuesday that without a ceasefire by then, the area could become “extremely dangerous.”

Israel also warned that if Israeli hostages being held in Gaza do not return to their homes before Ramadan, it will launch a military attack on Rafah in southern Gaza, where some 1.5 million Palestinians are trying to seek safety from the fighting.

Representatives of Hamas, Egypt, Qatar and the United States met this week in the Egyptian capital for further talks, while Israel refused to send a delegation because Hamas has not yet submitted a list of the names of hostages, living and dead, a recent demand from Israel. . .

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The Biden administration insists that Israel has already agreed to the general terms of a six-week truce while Hamas holds out.

A Hamas delegation left Cairo on Thursday after days of talks without making clear progress in the negotiations aimed at reaching a ceasefire in exchange for the release of the hostages. The Egyptian official Cairo Media Channel, citing a high-ranking source, said that the delegation left to consult on the proposals and that negotiations would resume next week.

“It's in Hamas' hands now,” Biden told reporters on Tuesday as he boarded Air Force One. He had raised hopes last week when he said a ceasefire could be reached last Monday, a prediction he later admitted was unlikely.

The diplomat said last week's deadly incident in which 100 Palestinians were killed in Gaza City when an aid convoy was harassed and Israeli forces opened fire “set us back 10 steps.” Hamas then presented to the mediators a response to a negotiating framework that “no one is happy with.”

It is expected that the deal, if successful, will include several stages. In the first phase, when fighting stops for at least six weeks, it is expected that about 40 Israeli hostages, including the elderly, women, sick and wounded, will be freed. In parallel, Israel will also release Palestinian prisoners from Israeli prisoners, a number that may reach hundreds.

Sources told CNN that Hamas backed away from some of its tougher demands, but after the “flour massacre,” as it became known, last week, the movement pushed for more guarantees. That is, in the first stage, the Israeli army will withdraw from the cities of Gaza, and in a second stage, it will withdraw completely from the Gaza Strip, according to the diplomat, who said that the Israeli army refuses to accept these points.

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Not only do Palestinians in northern Gaza need to be able to return to what remains of their homes, as Hamas has argued in the talks, but they must do so without passing through Israeli army checkpoints. The diplomat said that Hamas is demanding the provision of specific mechanisms for transporting the rubble, as well as field hospitals and clinics.

The movement said in a statement on Wednesday that Hamas “will continue negotiations,” claiming that it has “shown flexibility” but that Israel continues to “evade the obligations of the agreement” under discussion.

He added, “We have confirmed our conditions for the ceasefire: complete withdrawal [de las FDI] Hamas leader Osama Hamdan said in a press conference in Beirut on Tuesday that the Gaza Strip and the return of the displaced to the areas they abandoned, especially in the north, and the provision of adequate aid, relief and reconstruction.

Ramadan, the month of fasting and piety for Muslims, is “a period when you feel calm and can do basic humanitarian work,” a senior administration official told reporters at a news conference over the weekend.

According to the United Nations, about a quarter of Gaza's population is on the brink of famine. The Biden administration intensified its criticism of Israel's refusal to open more border crossings to allow aid into Gaza, especially to meet needs in the north.

“There are no excuses,” Biden said on X.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Tuesday that even without a ceasefire, there is an urgent need to “significantly increase the humanitarian assistance we are receiving.”

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