Voters vote at a private booth at West Side High School during early voting in New York City on November 6. (Photo: Michael Brochstein/Sipa USA/AP)
The 2022 midterm elections are here, and here are seven things to watch in Tuesday’s midterm elections:
Who will control the House of Representatives?: Of all the main arguments on Tuesday night, this is the one that few Democrats have debated because the party is unlikely to take control of the legislature in January. Given that Republicans only need a net gain of five seats to win a majority, the chances of the Republican Party winning by returning to the House are high. The party is on the offensive in House races across the country, but most notably in areas where Biden was going easy just two years ago, including the seemingly blue areas of Rhode Island, New York and Oregon.
Who will control the Senate?: If control of the House of Representatives seems like an inevitable loss to the Democrats, control of the Senate, currently evenly divided, presents a surprising bright spot for the party, aided by voters with unfavorable feelings toward Democrats. Republican candidates, while opposed to Biden’s job performance. The most weak Democrats on the ballot are Nevada, New Hampshire, Arizona and Georgia, with polls showing each of these races close. The party is on the offensive in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, two states that Biden won just two years ago.
Election opponents in major states: Republicans who have echoed former President Donald Trump’s lies about widespread voter fraud are trying to seize the election machines in some swing states. The results in those states could have dire consequences in 2024, as Trump is on the cusp of another presidential bid and candidates in crucial swing states seek positions they can try to use to undermine the will of voters.
Latino voters will continue to swing to the right: Republicans will watch if it builds on Trump’s gains among Hispanic voters two years ago. Three House elections in Rio Grande Valley, Texas, with a strong Hispanic presence, will tell part of the story. Latino voters also make up significant parts of the electorate in Arizona and Nevada and Miami-Dade County in Florida.
Impact of Presidential Politics: “If we lose the House and the Senate, it’s going to be a terrible two years,” Biden said at a fundraiser Friday. It’s a point made by former President Barack Obama, who campaigned for candidates in Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona and Pennsylvania in recent weeks, during his last rally in Philadelphia on Saturday.
Those who make the wave (or those who break it): The shape of Congress over the next two years may be crystal clear in the early hours after polls close on the East Coast, even if a slate of big races are very close to being announced. For Democrats, losing two of the three contests would portend a very bad night. The party, both nationally and in certain states, has increasingly invested its electoral destiny in notoriously volatile suburbs. If there is a Republican wave coming, the first sighting of the tides will be on the Atlantic coast.
wait: As most Americans learned two years ago, Election Day can be a misnomer. This Tuesday is when voting ends. But, in many states, this is also the time when the counting begins. This means that many of the hotly contested elections may take until early morning or even later this week to decide. This is partly due to the nature of recounts—and sometimes recounts—but also to state laws that direct poll workers on how to do their jobs, and in some states, require them not to do so until later.
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