Presidential elections in Ecuador: What you need to know

Ecuador’s presidential elections take place on Sunday during a turbulent time for the country. In May, President Guillermo Lasso called snap elections amid impeachment proceedings against him for embezzlement. Last week, presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio was assassinated while campaigning.

All this came as foreign drug mafias combined with local prisons and street gangs to unleash a wave of violence unprecedented in modern Ecuadorian history, sending murder rates to record highs and making security the number one issue for most voters.

This is what you should know about the upcoming elections.

Why are there early elections?

In May, Lasso dissolved the opposition-led National Assembly, making use of, for the first time, a constitutional measure allowing the president to rule by decree until new presidential and legislative elections could be held. The impeachment process finally stopped when Lasso dissolved the legislature.

The move came at a time of extraordinary political turmoil in this country of 18 million people on the western tip of South America. But it did provide temporary stability by allowing the president to circumvent the impasse in the legislature and appease voters seeking new leadership and action against rising street crime, drug and gang violence.

Candidates can win outright if they receive 50 percent of the total vote or 40 percent with a 10 percent lead over the second. Otherwise, the two candidates with the most votes will compete in a second round on October 15.

The new president will hold office until May 2025.

Votes will be cast and counted using technology blockchain To prevent electoral fraud, according to the Ecuadorian National Electoral Council, which is new in Latin America.

Who is Fernando Villavicencio and why was he assassinated?

The election campaign was shaken on Sunday, August 9, when Villavicencio was shot at a campaign rally. Six Colombians have been arrested in connection with the horrific murder, but it remains unclear who, if anyone, hired them.

Villavicencio was a council member, former investigative journalist, and anti-corruption activist. Although he was not one of the main contenders, as he was mid-favourites in an eight-candidate contest, he had a long history in Ecuadorian public affairs, largely as an adversary to those in power.

He played a crucial role in exposing a bribery scandal that led to the conviction of former President Rafael Correa. Some of his work has earned him death threats.

His denunciation of the links between organized crime and the political class won him enemies. The attack was a shocking event in an election dominated by concerns about drug-related violence.

Who are the main candidates?

The candidate leading in the polls is Luisa Gonzalez, backed by the powerful party of former President Correa, who ruled from 2007 to 2017. During his presidency, a commodity boom helped lift millions out of poverty, but Correa’s authoritarian style and accusations of corruption divided the country deeply.

“We’re seeing a lot of nostalgia on the part of voters about the security situation and the economic situation while he was in power, which seems to be driving his candidacy,” said Risa Grace Targo, Eurasia Group’s Latin America director. “The rest of the candidates are fighting an intense battle for second place.”

This will include Otto Sonnenholzner, former vice president, and indigenous activist Yako Perez, who has been campaigning on environmental issues.

“Otto is trying to position himself as a kind of newcomer to the middle,” said Grace Targo, but for many voters he represents “the political continuity of the lasso.”

As for Perez, he said his focus on the environment and corruption are not the primary concern of voters.

Cristian Zurita, a longtime research fellow and close friend of Villavicencio, replaced him as his party’s candidate, but he is seen as a distant chance.

Did the killing change the electoral dynamics?

Although security has always been a priority issue, “this election will have a lot to do with the issue of security,” said Paulo Moncagata, a political analyst based in Quito.

Experts speculate that this may improve the chances of the hitherto unknown candidate, Jean Topec, a 40-year-old businessman and former French Foreign Legionnaire who has focused on taking a tough stance on crime.

He reiterated the promises of El Salvadoran President Neb Bukele, whose tough take on gangs has dramatically reduced rates of violence, though his aggressive tactics have alarmed human rights observers.

Polls in Ecuador are often evasive, but recent numbers suggest Gonzalez’s lead is waning, and Tubic recently put him in contention with Sonnenholzner for second place.

After the murder, he decided to change his vote to support Topic, said German Martinez, the coroner who works at the morgue where Villavicencio’s body lay last week.

“This cannot continue here in the country,” he said. “We are looking for someone who will face all of this with a strong hand.”

Many Villavicencio supporters blame his murder on his political enemy, Correa. There is no evidence that Correa or his party, Movimiento Revolución Ciudadana, were involved in the assassination, but experts say the fallout could hurt Gonzales in the election.

Analysts warn that rather than getting voters to go to the polls, growing security concerns may convince them to stay home, despite a mandatory voting law that imposes fines for absenteeism.

“Voting is scary,” said Ana Vera, 44, a housewife in the capital, Quito.

Security concerns escalated this week when gunshots were reported near where the two candidates were standing. On Thursday, a shooting occurred in Duran, near the residence of presidential candidate Daniel Noboa. Authorities said he was not targeted.

On Saturday, a shooting took place outside a restaurant in Guayaquil where Sonnenholzner was eating, though authorities said the candidate was not a target either.

What are the stakes in this election?

Ecuador was a quiet haven compared to Colombia, the neighboring country that has suffered decades of violence from armed guerrilla groups, paramilitary forces, and drug cartels. That all changed in recent years, however, as Colombia made a peace deal and Ecuador found itself in the grip of an increasingly powerful drug industry.

With frequent news of beheadings, car bombs, police assassinations, young men hanging from bridges, and children being shot at the doors of their homes or schools, Ecuadorians are hoping for a new leadership that will bring them back to the peaceful life to which they are accustomed. .

Jenny Goya, 29, was recently riding a taxi through downtown Guayaquil, the country’s largest city, when the driver suddenly swerved. Two armed men got into the car, stole their belongings, and emptied their bank accounts. After holding her for two hours, they left her on the street.

“I have always felt completely safe on the street despite the crime, but now I avoid going out as much as possible,” said Goya, the university’s principal. “I’m also starting to feel unsafe in enclosed spaces.”

“In the following months, I began to feel that there was no safe place,” he added.

Thalie Ponce contributed information.