Renewable energy and electric cars slow the increase in global carbon dioxide emissions from the energy sector

Despite concerns about the effects of the current energy crisis, Global carbon dioxide emissions from burning fossil fuels are expected to increase by just under 1% this year, a fraction of their increase last year, with the sharp expansion of renewables and electric vehicles. Prevents a more severe rise.

A new IEA analysis of the latest data from around the world shows that these CO2 emissions are on track to increase by about 300 million tons in 2022 to 33.8 billion tons, a much smaller increase than their jump of nearly 2,000 million tons in 2021, which They resulted from the rapid global recovery from the economic crisis caused by the pandemic. The increase this year has been driven by power generation and the aviation sector, with air travel rebounding from pandemic lows.

The increase in global carbon dioxide emissions this year would have been much higher, more than tripled to nearly a billion tons, had it not been for the significant deployments of renewable energy technologies and electric vehicles (EVs) around the world. Although the energy crisis caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine boosted global demand for coal in 2022 by making natural gas more expensive, the relatively small increase in coal emissions has been overshadowed by the expansion of renewable energy. Global energy trends this year were also affected by the effects of the Russian war on the global economy, which led to a significant reduction in economic growth forecasts, especially in Europe.

The combined result is that the carbon dioxide intensity of the global energy supply will improve slightly in 2022, resuming the years-long trend of steady improvement that was halted last year by the emissions-intensive economic recovery from the Covid crisis. The expected improvement this year contrasts with what happened after the 2008 global financial crisis, which saw the carbon dioxide intensity of energy supplies deteriorate sharply for several years after the initial economic shock.

The global energy crisis caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has sparked a rush by many countries to use other energy sources to replace the natural gas supplies that Russia withheld from the market. The Executive Director of the International Energy Agency, Dr. Fatih Birol. This means that CO2 emissions are growing much less rapidly this year than some people had feared, and that policy actions by governments are driving real structural changes in the energy economy. These changes will be accelerated by the major clean energy policy plans that have been advanced around the world in recent months.”

Wind and sun break all records

Solar PV and wind power are driving a rise in global renewable electricity generation in 2022 of more than 700 TWh, the largest annual increase on record. Without this increase, global carbon dioxide emissions would be more than 600 million tons higher this year. The rapid deployment of solar and wind energy is on track to achieve two-thirds of the growth in renewable energy generation. Despite the difficult situation hydropower has faced in many regions due to this year’s drought, global hydropower production has increased year on year, contributing more than a fifth of the projected growth in renewable energy.

While electricity generation from wind and solar PV is growing much faster than any other source in 2022, coal is expected to register the next largest increase as some countries return to coal use in response to higher natural gas prices. In total, global carbon dioxide emissions from coal power generation will increase by more than 200 million tons, or 2%, this year, led by increases in Asia.

Carbon dioxide emissions from the European Union are on track to decline this year despite the rise in carbon emissions. The increase in coal use in Europe is expected to be temporary, with a strong pipeline of new renewable projects expected to add about 50 gigawatts of capacity in 2023. These additions will generate more electricity than the expected increase in power generation. Relied on coal in the European Union. in 2022. In China, carbon dioxide emissions are expected to remain roughly flat this year, reflecting a mix of different forces at play, including weak economic growth, drought impacts on hydropower, and large solar and wind deployments .

In addition to the challenges facing hydropower in some regions, the global supply of low-emission electricity has suffered a setback due to a series of outages at nuclear power plants, which will reduce global nuclear energy production by more than 80 TWh. This is largely due to the fact that more than half of the French nuclear reactor fleet was out of service for part of the year. The decline in nuclear power generation worldwide has contributed to the increased use of coal and oil to generate electricity. Global use of natural gas is expected to decline in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which reduced CO2 emissions by about 40 million tons in 2022.

oil and gas

Demand for oil is expected to grow more than any other fossil fuel in 2022, with oil-related carbon dioxide emissions increasing by nearly 180 million tons. This has been largely driven by the transportation sector, where travel restrictions were lifted and travel and commuting patterns resumed prior to the outbreak of the pandemic. Aviation is expected to contribute about three-quarters of the increase in emissions from oil use, particularly due to increased international air travel. However, emissions from the aviation sector are still only about 80% of their pre-pandemic levels.

Uncertainty in global natural gas markets will continue to shape many key energy trends through the remainder of this year and into 2023. However, promising signs of permanent structural changes in global energy carbon dioxide intensity are emerging in 2022, and they are expected to materialize . Backed by significant increases in government support for clean energy investment, particularly in the US inflation-reduction law, as well as decarbonization schemes such as the EU’s Fit for 55 package and Green Transformation (GX) in Japan, and ambitious clean energy targets in China and India.

The implications of recent policies on energy security and global emissions trends will be explored in depth in World Energy Outlook 2022 From the International Energy Agency, to be published October 27.