Carlo Ancelotti said something resembling an old football maxim after their win over Granada on Saturday. And it was. But it was also something she ended up finding support in advanced mathematics, neurophysiology and brainwave knowledge: “When he’s on the right, Rodrigo scores in the middle, on the left or on the right.” The Brazilian has just scored for the fifth match in a row: seven goals in total. what…
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Carlo Ancelotti said something resembling an old football maxim after their win over Granada on Saturday. And it was. But it was also something she ended up finding support in advanced mathematics, neurophysiology and brainwave knowledge: “When he’s on the right, Rodrigo scores in the middle, on the left or on the right.” The Brazilian has just scored for the fifth match in a row: seven goals in total. Scoring from the right flank, where he was said to have been uncomfortable, added another point to the confirmation that Rodrygo was on the decline, after a series of violent attacks.
It was a difficult time. The Brazilian scored his first goal of the season on August 12 in San Mames. After that, he tried 41 more times, over two and a half months, until on October 22, in Braga, he succeeded again. If you add up the value of all the chances he had up to the break in Portugal, Rodrygo has given up 3.63 expected goals (xG), according to the StatsBomb model. At that time, he was the footballer with the worst goal in Europe.
Ancelotti, a veteran of all battles, knew this would change: “We have to be patient because these are the moments that strikers particularly have. There are times when you touch it and put it in, and there are times when you shoot a few times and are not effective. It will happen, as it happened.” With all the strikers.” He said it at a still sensitive time in the calendar. It was November 7. Rodrygo had scored two weeks earlier, and had played two empty games. But the Italian sensed that something was about to change. So it was.
The next day, Rodrygo scored a goal against Braga at the Bernabéu, and also scored in the next four matches, until the match he scored against Granada. Ancelotti sensed, as footballers sense, that one goal required another. This phenomenon has always been true in other sports as well, such as basketball, where it is known as the “hot hand”: after scoring several shots in a row, the shooter gets into the “zone” and feels that he will continue to shoot better. . Players and coaches believe it, and they call time-outs to interrupt the moment of inspiration. However, for decades, cognitive psychology maintained that this was nothing more than an illusion.
In 1985, three psychologists (Thomas Gilovich, Robert Fallone, and Amos Tversky) who discovered cognitive biases suspected the hot hand was nothing more than just another self-deception, and set out to dismantle it. They examined shot data to see if he was more likely to score after a series of shots compared to normal conditions. They concluded that no, it was just a coincidence, and that athletes who believed in strikes or moments, or “Ancelotti being OK”, were nothing more than just another kind of superstition.
Over the next 30 years, researchers around the world designed similar studies that ultimately enhanced the reputation of what was supposed to be the case The hot hand fallacy, which has become a very popular concept. It wasn’t until 2015 that two economists (Joshua Miller and Adam Sangiorgio) reviewed the data from that seminal 1985 study and realized that Gilovich’s team had looked at it the wrong way. In fact, his shot records showed the opposite: he was more likely to score after a series of shots. The hot hand was there, in the data.
Neurological studies have also found signs in the brain Paid. These are high-alpha brain waves, according to José Adan, head of the neurotraining unit at the RX2 Sports Medicine Center. “Measuring high alpha waves in the brain is a great indicator to differentiate between great and good athletes. “It appears at times of best performance,” he says. “Those who don’t stand out at crucial moments have a lower frequency of high alpha levels during activity. With more high alpha levels, you have the ability to shift attention very quickly, with an outward focus of attention; “Alert and at the same time calm,” he explains. “It’s a state where everything is flowing. The brain is doing what it needs to do at all times without hindrance, without ruminations, worries or expectations, which wastes a lot of energy.
Bad streaks, like the one experienced by Rodrigo, usually lead to a focus on thoughts about failure, its consequences, and its effects. “This can free up. It uses twice as much energy. When more obstacles are put on the brain, it affects performance,” says Adan. “The mind stops flowing and this affects performance.”
After a long string of missed shots from Rodrigo during his two-and-a-half months without scoring at Real Madrid, when he finally found the goal, it was thanks to an easier chance than all the previous ones: he had 0.44 xG. Before, he had missed two very interesting goals, one worth 0.40 against Real Sociedad and another worth 0.35 against Union Berlin. However, the goal in Braga did not put him in the zone. He didn’t score on his next seven shots, and didn’t do so again until he found another relatively easy chance, with 0.42xG. From there he turned his momentum around: he scored five goals in the next 14 shots, with the best chance that eluded him being just 0.18 xG.
As of October 31, there were 361 footballers in Europe who had been involved in more goals than Rodrygo, according to Opta records. Since November 1, no one has been involved in more goals than him.
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