Russia’s military divided over Putin’s efforts against Ukraine

Washington (CNN) – The Russian military disagrees about the best way to counter the unexpected Ukrainian advance on the battlefield This month, according to multiple sources familiar with US intelligence, Moscow found itself on the defensive in both the east and south.

Russian President Vladimir Putin himself is instructing generals in the field, two sources familiar with US and Western intelligence said, a management tactic highly unusual in a modern military that these sources said indicated the dysfunctional command structure that has plagued Russia since the war. beginning.

One such source told CNN that the intelligence intercepts had Russian officials arguing with each other and complaining to friends and family back home about Moscow’s decision-making.

The Russian Defense Ministry has said it is redeploying forces to Kharkiv in the northeast, where Ukraine has made the most dramatic gains, but US and Western sources say the bulk of Russian forces remain in the south, where Ukraine has also made the biggest gains. Offensive operations around Kherson.

Putin announced on Wednesday a Partial packing Which is expected to include the call-up of up to 300,000 reservists. He has resisted making the move for months, and Biden administration officials said Wednesday that the fact that he has moved to do so now highlights the severity of Russia’s labor shortage and signals growing desperation.

It is not clear whether the mobilization will make a practical difference on the battlefield, or simply prolong the war without changing the outcome, according to Russian military analysts.

spread the blame

A senior NATO official said that as Russia teeters on the battlefield, officials in Moscow were quick to blame the sudden reversal in Russia’s fortunes.

“Kremlin officials and critics in the state media have frantically discussed the reasons for the failure in Kharkiv, and in an exemplary way, the Kremlin appears to be trying to shift the blame from Putin and the Russian military,” the newspaper said.

Russia’s military leadership has already undergone changes in response to failures on the battlefield, leaving the Russian command structure more disorganized than before, according to the sources. The NATO official said the commander who oversaw most units across the Kharkiv region had only been on duty for 15 days and was now relieved.

Russia has sent a “small number” of troops into eastern Ukraine, some of whom fled amid Ukraine’s battlefield advances last week, according to US defense officials, in an effort to bolster its weak defense lines.

But even if Russia is able to get around a plan, U.S. and Western officials believe Russia is limited in its ability to mount a strategically meaningful response to Ukraine’s counterattack operations, which, sources say, shifted the momentum in Kyiv’s favor. . Even after the partial mobilization was announced, officials remain skeptical of Russia’s ability to rapidly deploy large numbers of troops to Ukraine, given its persistent problems with supply lines, communications and morale.

A senior defense official told CNN that the “small scale” of the Russian redeployment is a sign of its inability to conduct any serious operations.

So far, this person said, Russia has responded to Ukraine’s progress with attacks on critical infrastructure such as dams and power plants, and has launched attacks on the United States that it largely views as “retaliatory” attacks rather than operational importance.

In the absence of more manpower, which it does not have now, the sources said Russia has few other options to punish or repel Ukrainian forces. Putin is “struggling,” the National Security Council’s strategic communications coordinator, John Kirby, said in an appearance on CNN on Wednesday. Kirby said the Russian military suffers from “poor unit cohesion, desertion from the ranks, and soldiers who do not want to fight.”

“He has appalling morale, unit cohesion on the battlefield, command and control not yet done. He has desertion issues and he’s forcing the wounded back into combat. So obviously the personnel are a problem for him,” Kirby said. “It feels like it’s on the defensive, especially in that northeastern region of Donbass.”

The mobilization order is a sign that Putin’s plan is not working

Military analysts said that Putin’s mobilization order is important because it is a direct admission that Moscow’s “special military operation” was not successful and needs to be modified.

But for now, there are more questions than answers about its exact operational impact. It is the first such order issued in Russia since World War II, giving military analysts little more recent data to base their predictions on.

Michael Kaufman, the program director, said that even if Moscow could increase its troop numbers, whether by preventing current contract service members from leaving service or by mobilizing reservists, it would struggle to train, equip, and integrate those forces into existing units. Studies on Russia at the Center for Naval Analysis. Kaufman and others said that even if it resolved some of the short-term staffing issues, they likely wouldn’t be high-quality employees.

Even in the best of cases, it will take some time for Moscow to get new troops.

“I think it’s reasonable to say that partial mobilization probably won’t appear on the battlefield for several months at the earliest, and it may enhance Russia’s ability to continue this war, but it won’t change its outcome,” Kaufman said.

Russia’s previous failures in planning, communications and logistics were compounded by the heavy losses it incurred in its withdrawal from the outskirts of Kharkiv, according to the sources. A NATO official said Russia had left “a lot” of equipment behind in its withdrawal. This person said that at least one unit of the big names, from the 1st Guards Tank Army, had been “decimated”.

“With its northern axis close to collapsing, this will make it difficult for Russian forces to halt the Ukrainian advance, as well as provide cover for the retreating Russian forces,” the official said. “We believe that it will also seriously harm Russia’s plans to occupy all of Donbass,” he added.

The wild card remains, as always, the president of Russia. Wednesday, Putin threatened again using nuclear weapons, a threat US officials said they take “very seriously” but saw no immediate indication that they were planning to implement it.

The pro-Russian authorities in some occupied areas of eastern Ukraine also announced their intention to do so conduct political referendums on its accession to Russia, a maneuver that, according to some analysts, Russia could use as a pretext for military action.

But, according to a senior NATO official, “In general, Russia is now on the defensive. And Ukraine has the initiative, forcing Russia to take temporary measures to avoid further losses.”

“If Ukraine can conduct sustained defensive operations, it could further undermine the sustainability of Russian defences,” this person said.

Barbara Starr and Tim Lister contributed to the report.