Madrid, 3 July (.). Markets will be on hold this week, which begins with a Wall Street holiday, the release of Eurozone retail sales for May and final PMI data for June, on background fears of a recession, rising inflation and an economic slowdown,
Next Tuesday, the fifth, IHS Markit will publish the final data for the PMI index of eurozone activity from S&P Global.
By this indicator, activity in the eurozone slowed sharply in June to a 16-month low due to slowing demand and strong inflation.
In this regard, director of financial investments at Mutualidad de la Abogaía, Pedro del Pozo, told Efe that “the PMI data in Europe is expected to mark the correction in terms of growth or production,” among other factors.
Two days later, on Thursday the seventh, the minutes of the June 9 ECB Governing Council meeting will be released.
The European Central Bank’s Governing Council decided that day to begin moderate rate hikes at its 21st meeting to curb the sharp rise in inflation caused by the war in Ukraine.
As del Pozo noted, “there is a lot of speculation about whether it will eventually rise 25 or 50 basis points” and “especially with the mechanism that it could adopt in order to avoid a split or unbundling of peripheral debt.”
In this way, the European Central Bank decided to start with a moderate rate hike of 25 basis points, which will be followed by another hike in September, the amount of which has not yet been determined.
Meanwhile, in business, many Spanish companies will pay their dividends throughout the week, according to Singular Bank.
In the US, investors’ attention this week will focus on developments in the labor market with the release of the ADP survey and employment report for June.
Del Pozo said that “the United States is operating at practically full capacity and it is strange that they should lower or worsen this figure for full employment until inflation is contained.”
This Monday, markets will have no signal for Wall Street, which will remain closed for a holiday celebrated on July 4, Independence Day in the United States.
Similarly, the final data of the IHS Markit composite services PMI for June for the US economy will also be released.
On Wednesday, the minutes of the June 15 FOMC meeting, where they achieved the largest increase in interest rates (75 basis points) since 1994 and the beginning of the cut, will be published. of its balance sheet in the face of high inflation rates.
A day later, on Thursday, the result of the ADP private sector employment survey will be announced, with analysts unanimously agreed that 200,000 new jobs were created in June, reflecting the acceleration in job creation after the marked slowdown. in the previous months.
As for the official employment report, which will be released on Friday, the market consensus expects a slight slowdown to 295,000 non-farm payrolls, 95,000 fewer than in May.
Additionally, it is estimated that the unemployment rate will remain at 3.6% of the active population.
In the Asia Pacific region, investor attention will focus on the release of Caixin Services and Composite PMIs scheduled for release on Tuesday.
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