Madrid, 4 June (.). – The global market for smart mobile phones or “smartphones” will decline between 3% and 3.5% in 2022 compared to 2021, due to the shutdown in China due to the Corona virus and the loss of consumer confidence due to economic uncertainty and high inflation.
The latest forecasts published by Counterpoint and IDC indicate that global mobile shipments will decline this year after 2021 as they saw 4% growth, according to the first consultant, and 5.7% in the second.
According to Counterpoint’s forecast, global mobile phone shipments will reach 1,357 million units in 2022, 3% lower than in 2021 and 8.25% less than in 2019, the year before the coronavirus pandemic.
For its part, the IDC consulting company is exacerbating expectations, confirming that during 2022 1,310 million units will be shipped, which is a decrease of 3.5% compared to 2021.
Global mobile phone shipments will not be able to recover the levels of 2019, the year prior to the pandemic, after a series of three consecutive quarters of declines year on year.
Both advisors agree that the mobile phone industry will be particularly affected by China’s “zero-tolerance policy against the coronavirus,” with cities shutting down and entire regions being blockaded, slowing the country’s economy “as well as causing a chain reaction in the world’s economy.”
According to IDC, these shutdowns are affecting both global supply and demand, by shutting down the world’s largest market and “tightening the bottleneck” in the supply chain, causing many tech companies like Apple (NASDAQ:) or Samsung (KS: ) reduce their requests.
Besides the shutdowns in China, Counterpoint and IDC also cited a “lack of consumer confidence,” in the words of the first consultancy, due to global economic uncertainty and increased inflation due to the Ukraine war.
Finally, Counterpoint asserts that emerging economies will face capital flight and inflation, which will affect the global mobile market.
In the case of the semiconductor shortage, which has characterized the industry’s work through 2021, the problems will improve “during the second half of 2022,” according to the IDC.
The largest waterfalls in Europe
By geographic region, IDC expects that the largest drop in freight will occur in Central and Eastern Europe, especially affected by the Ukraine War, where the market will drop by 22%.
In the case of China, shipments will fall by 11.5% compared to 2021. Specifically, 38 million units will not be shipped, which will represent about 80% of the global decline that the consultant expected for 2022.
In Western Europe, the market will decline by 1%, while “most other regions will see positive growth.”
By hardware, 5G mobile phone shipments will grow by 25.5% compared to 2021 and will represent 53% of the total, with nearly 700 million sales and an average price of over 550 euros.
Long term recovery
Despite the setback for 2022, IDC expects global mobile shipments to rebound in the medium term, reaching a compound annual growth rate of 1.9% through 2026.
In addition, the consultant believes that smartphones with 5G technology will monopolize 76% of the market within five years, at an average price lower than the current price, around 400 euros.
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