Although it closed stable after a slight rise in the last exchange session of the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP), he dollar price It has suffered huge losses in the past 30 days. highest value exchange rate This year it was recorded on February 13 at S/3.8840, following an uptrend that began in December and was consolidated in January. However, as of March 13, this had fallen to S/3.6740, down from S/0.21.
However, as mentioned, the currency is currently experiencing a slight appreciation, S/3.6880in the last session of PCR. Why did the price of the dollar fall so much despite some people's expectations that it would remain high? Peru information Talk to Jorge Luis Ojeda, Professor of Finance at UPC, to find out what lies ahead regarding the exchange rate in the coming months.
In an interview with AndesJorge Carrillo, a professor of finance at Pacifico Business School, noted The price of the dollar will continue to fall in the following weeksuntil it reached around S/3.65, because “March is the month in which many export companies, from mining to agro-industrial companies, go out to sell dollars because they have to pay income tax (IR) and Services For their workers (…). These payments are usually in slippers, but businessmen earn in dollars; “Therefore, there is a lot of supply of dollars, which causes the exchange rate to fall.”
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In conversation with Peru informationJorge Luis Ojeda, professor of finance at UPC University, explained the reasons for this decline in the value of the dollar, in the context of… Economic situation From the United States, where this coin comes from.
“This is the trend prompted by the latest inflation report in the United States, (…) in February it was 3.2%, higher than January. It was expected to fall, but it did not rise and rose slightly. So it is likely that the Fed will not cut Reference interest rate [en la próxima reunión]. This has, in a way, weakened the dollar in the world, knowing that the inflation numbers have not calmed down yet.
However, the specialist also points out that it is expected that Central Reserve Bank of Peru Lower your interest rate. This has led to a decline in the value of the dollar in most countries. latin america.
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There are still a few weeks when the dollar will fall further. “Right now, some capital is still coming in. But over the next few months, they will start to exit, and when they exit, it will imply that they are selling dollar. When dollars are sold, there is a greater supply of dollars, and the exchange rate falls. Since the Fed did not lower its rate interest rate“The most likely thing is that there will be an influx from the United States to Peru,” the financial expert explained.
“There are many things that will happen this month. There is the payment of income tax: when it is paid, companies will have to exchange dollars into soles, which will cause the exchange rate to remain the same or fall a little. He adds: “In March, they will also have to pay Profits for workers.”
However, specialist Ojeda indicates that this will increase after March. “But in April and May, this exchange rate will likely start to appreciateBecause those capitals that entered Peru are likely to be withdrawn, given that the central central bank announced a reduction in interest rates. But the dollar will rise slowly.”
Thus, Jorge Luis Ojeda highlights that The exchange rate will be between S/3.70 and S/3.80 Even until the middle of the year. “From here it will depend on what the Fed does and how the economy recovers.” Economy of Peru. He concludes that if the economy is reactivated, the sun could begin to improve.
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