KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — The Ukrainian military’s surprise invasion of Russian territory this week was an impressive maneuver that caught the Kremlin’s forces by surprise.
The strategic objective behind Ukraine’s largest cross-border incursion in nearly 900 days of war remains unclear, but it contrasts with Russia’s sustained efforts in recent months to breach Ukrainian defenses at select points along the front line in eastern Ukraine.
The slow and exhausting momentum of the Russian offensive has achieved only modest gains and inflicted heavy losses in troops and armor. But little by little the progress is accumulating.
These summer months are crucial for Ukraine and its weakened military. It must fend off its larger, better-equipped enemy on the battlefield while repairing the national power grid, destroyed by Russian missiles, before winter sets in.
What does the battlefield on Ukraine’s eastern front look like?
The front line, which is about 1,000 kilometers (600 miles) long, remains virtually stagnant.
But in parts of the east, especially in the Donetsk region, Russia is making concerted advances. Its military is using dry ground to move its armored vehicles, dense trees to provide infantry cover, and clear skies to launch powerful gliders that are destroying Ukrainian defenses.
The Russian advance is slow but relentless. Russia’s signature tactic is to use its artillery, rockets and bombs to reduce towns and villages to rubble, depriving the Ukrainians of defensive cover and forcing them to retreat.
Analysts say Russian forces are seeking to exploit weaknesses in Ukrainian lines and attack in areas where troop levels are lower or where soldiers are rotating.
The Russians are now threatening some key Ukrainian strongholds, the fall of which would put the rest of the Donetsk region at risk: Pokrovsk, Toretsk, and Chasiv Yar.
Britain’s Ministry of Defence said on Friday that Russian forces were now within 16 kilometres (10 miles) of Pokrovsk, a key logistics hub supporting Ukrainian forces in the region. The ministry said Russia was also consolidating its advance on New York and advancing towards Toretsk.
“Right now, the momentum is clearly on the Russian side,” says Charles Kupchan, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, a nonprofit think tank specializing in foreign policy and international affairs based in Washington. The overall situation on the battlefield, he adds, is “much closer to a stalemate.”
Russia is making gains, but its lead may soon run out
Although it currently has momentum and seems determined to achieve some battlefield victories before the weather changes, Russia also has lingering problems.
The Russian army suffered more than 1,000 casualties a day during May and June as it advanced towards Donetsk, according to the British Ministry of Defence.
Although it has overrun a string of small Ukrainian settlements — some just a strip of roadside homes — its advance “is likely to slow further as Russian forces advance toward a line of larger, more urban settlements,” the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank for military affairs and analysis, said last week.
Kupchan, of the Council on Foreign Relations think tank, does not expect a major Russian breakthrough. Even if Russia does break through, “organizing a column that can advance deep inside Ukrainian lines is complicated” because of logistical and organizational requirements that the military cannot meet.
“It’s not a high-quality force,” he said of the Russian military. But he added: “In a war of attrition, numbers matter.”
Kostyantyn Mashovets, an expert at the Ukrainian Center for Military and Political Research, believes that Russia is now pushing hard because it has “reached the peak in building up its forces and (military) power.”
He says the turning point will come by the end of this year, when the Kremlin will have to decide whether to begin partial or full mobilization.
Ukraine’s Surprise Tactic: Advancing Towards Russia’s Kursk Region
Ukraine took a new turn in the war by invading Russia’s Kursk Oblast on August 6. The authorities in Kiev have remained silent about the advance of Ukrainian forces into Russia, without confirming it, but not denying it.
The surprise raid from the Sumy region in northeastern Ukraine appears to have been a tactic that opens a new arena for conflict, and more importantly, on Russian territory. The United States and its Western allies, which supply arms to Ukraine, have so far said little about the Ukrainian incursion.
Some analysts say it was a short-term raid, but others say it could be the start of a coordinated campaign to seize the city of Kursk and the nearby nuclear power plant. It is not certain what strategy Ukraine will pursue to hold territory in Russia.
Mykhailo Podolyak, a senior adviser to President Volodymyr Zelensky, said Thursday that the attacks in the border area would make Russia “begin to realize that the war is slowly creeping into Russian territory.” He also suggested that such an operation would improve Kyiv’s position in the event of negotiations with Moscow.
He asked: “When will it be possible to conduct a negotiation process so that we can pressure them or get something from them? Only when the war does not develop according to its scenarios.”
For Ukraine, the situation is bleak but not bleak.
Ukrainian forces are struggling to contain Russian military power and do not have the manpower or weapons to launch their offensive.
It also has difficulty equipping new brigades, lacks air defenses, and many of its front-line troops are exhausted, according to analysts.
The army absorbs Russian pressure by making tactical withdrawals and withdrawing to other places along the line.
“Every moment is getting harder and harder for Ukraine,” says Matthieu Boulègue, a defense expert at Chatham House, a nonprofit think tank in London that aims to analyze and advance understanding of major international issues. “I don’t see at this point how things can get any better” for Ukraine.
Ukraine is launching counterattacks by launching drones and missiles into the rear areas and attacking Russian oil depots, airports and other logistical support centers. The arrival of some F-16 fighter jets donated by Western countries should also help Ukraine resist.
What are the chances of reaching a peace agreement?
The negotiating positions of Moscow and Kiev remain far apart. Russian President Vladimir Putin wants Ukraine to surrender, and Zelensky demands that Russian troops leave his country.
Both sides are seeking to leverage the situation on the battlefield to help eventually reach an acceptable peace deal. Putin seems happy to continue a low-intensity conflict that will gradually, he hopes, wear down the West’s will to continue sending billions of dollars in aid to Ukraine.
Zelensky complains that his hands are tied: He declared at a NATO summit in July that Ukraine could not win the war unless the United States lifted restrictions on using its weapons to attack targets in Russia.
In the background, the US elections are taking place in November, which could change the fate of both sides, and in the fall, a possible second international diplomatic meeting is being held to end the war, in which Russia could have a role, unlike the last time around the table.
The stalemate on the front, international political developments, the potential for escalation of the war in the Middle East, and uncertainty about the future level of Western support for Ukraine all point to a way forward, Kupchan says.
“I think we’re moving toward some kind of sustained diplomatic effort” to end the war, he added.
But Chatham House’s Paulie believes the war has not yet reached a crossroads:
“As long as both sides have things to throw at each other, they will continue to do so,” he added.
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Hatton reported from Lisbon, Portugal.
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