In the third quarter of 2022, the prices of all the European electricity markets analyzed increased. Rising gas and carbon dioxide emissions rightstwo It caused quarterly averages to exceed €345/MWh in almost all European electricity markets. These prices are the highest recorded so far in the European electricity markets.
European electricity markets
In the third quarter of 2022, the average quarterly price was above €345/MWh across almost all European electricity markets analyzed in AleaSoft Energy Forecast. The exceptions were MIBEL . Market Spain, Portugal and Nord Bull Market from Nordic countries averaging €146.26/MWh, €147.51/MWh, and €175.99/MWh, respectively. In contrast, the highest average quarterly price, €472.03/MWh, was the price of IPEX Market From Italy, followed by EPEX SPOT سوق Market From France, 429.73 euros / MWh. In the rest of the markets, averages were between €345.01/MWh N2EX Market from the UK and €378.18/MWh from the EPEX SPOT market in Germany.
On the other hand, the prices of the MIBEL market were the lowest due to the application of the cap on the gas price in this market during the third quarter of 2022. But part of the consumers paid a higher price as compensation for that. Determine gas prices. The quarterly average price for this was €270.51/MWh in Spain, exceeding the quarterly price cap for the Spanish electricity market, €229.36/MWh, reached in the first quarter of 2022.
Compared to the second quarter of 2022, average prices increased in the third quarter in almost all European electricity markets analyzed in AleaSoft Energy Forecast. The exception was the MIBEL market in Spain and Portugal, with lower market prices without taking into account compensation paid by some consumers of 20% and 19%, respectively, as a result of the Iberian exception specifically. On the other hand, the largest increase in prices, by 102%, was recorded in the German market, while the smallest increase was in the Nord Bull market, 45%. The rest of the markets saw price increases between 86% of the Dutch market and 92% of the Belgian market.
Steep climbs
If the average prices for the third quarter of 2022 are compared with those recorded in the same quarter of 2021, then prices are rising in all markets. The highest price increase was in the French market, at 345%, while the lowest increases were seen in the Spanish and Portuguese markets, at 24% and 25%, respectively. In the rest of the markets, the price increases were between 128% of the British market and 289% of the German market.
With these price increases, in the third quarter of 2022, quarterly average prices reached all-time highs in all markets analyzed, except for the Iberian market, although as mentioned above, in this market if compensation is taken Which they pay into some consumers because of the gas cap, the prices for the last completed quarter also set a historic record. However, despite the quarterly increases, monthly prices declined across all European electricity markets analyzed in September 2022, after reaching historical maximum values in August. In that month, the average gas price reached a maximum historical value of €235.22/MWh, which had its upward impact on prices.
In the analyzed period, spot market TTF gas quarterly prices and CO2 emissions rightstwo It was high, reaching 198.71€/mWh and 79.68€/ton respectively. This led to higher prices in European electricity markets.
Compared to the previous quarter, in addition to a 101% increase in gas prices, an overall decrease in wind energy production and a decrease in solar energy production in the markets of Germany, Italy and Spain.
Compared to the same quarter of the previous year, the increase in the price of gas was 320%. carbon dioxide emissions rightstwo In this case, they also increased by 40%. The impact of these strong increases on European electricity market prices cannot be offset by the general increase in solar production and increased wind energy production in almost all markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting with data from OMIE, EPEX SPOT, Nord Pool and GME.
Analysis of the prospects for energy markets in Europe and financing of renewable projects
AleaSoft Energy Forecast It celebrates its twenty-third anniversary in October. During all these years, the company has been providing its customers with a wide range of Products and Services in the field of demand forecastAnd the Renewable Energy Production s Electricity and gas market prices. In the field of renewable energies, forecast wind productionAnd the Photovoltaic solar energy, solar thermal energyAnd the Cogeneration And the Hydroelectricity. In this month of celebration, a PERSONAL SPECIAL PROMOTION subordinate Reports Long-Term Price Curves Forecast for some European electricity markets.
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