In statements to the press, the President of the World Trade Council, Dirk Jandora, commented that these conditions will add caution to potential buyers from the Asian country and the United States, the country’s two main trading partners.
He assessed that “there will be no collapse in exports in 2023, but we cannot expect a sharp rise either.”
He noted that by 2022, German exports are likely to grow by a double-digit percentage, mainly thanks to higher prices, while merchandise volumes will grow in low single digits.
However, in the current context, German exporters have modest hopes for next year. “It would really be a success if we can stay on positive ground in real terms,” he said.
In China, the abandonment of aggressive anti-Covid-19 policies in early December unleashed a new wave of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, which affected several thousand residents.
Gandura said that although the Chinese economy is expected to see a strong recovery late next year, they are in for a difficult road in the coming weeks and months as workers become increasingly sick.
In addition, “we are also worried about the US, again we have a stronger euro due to the interest rate hike from the European Central Bank. That will not lead to an increase in exports,” he added.
According to the head of the BGA, higher interest rates have already had an impact in the United States, where they have risen even more, especially in the construction sector.
German exporters have been unable to process all orders in recent months due to supply shortages. This left them with comfortably full order books, and the expected decrease in supply bottlenecks should drive the takeover effect.
In 2021, exports from the most important European country increased by 14 percent and imports grew by 17 percent, reducing the trade surplus for the fifth year in a row.
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