Tuesday, November 5, 2024

What is at stake in the fight between Anthony Joshua and Francis Ngannou?

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Francis Ngannou returns to the boxing ring to face former unified champion Anthony Joshua. Is it the right decision?

Until less than 90 days ago, Francis Ngannou had never crossed the ropes in a professional boxing match.

We knew Ngannou had overwhelming power, but it was all on display in the octagon, where he was the UFC heavyweight champion.

The 37-year-old was seen as little more than a worthy dance partner in a tough boxing bout ahead of his October meeting with Tyson Fury.

However, Ngannou proved he was much more than that when he knocked out the heavyweight boxing champion in the third round, even winning the fight on one of three scorecards.

Now, Ngannou has a stunning opportunity to prove that his performance was no fluke when he faces former heavyweight champion Anthony Joshua on March 8 in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

In fact, what Ngannou is doing is unprecedented: His first two professional boxing bouts will be against future Hall of Famers, who remain among the elite heavyweight athletes.

Joshua looked at his best in years when he stopped Otto Wallin in five rounds last month. Can he build on his renewed 2023 campaign? Will Ngannou surprise the world again? Let's take an early look at the main storylines for Joshua vs. Ngannou:


Ngannou seeks to prove that his performance against Fury was no fluke

When you break it down, it's quite surprising how effective Ngannou is against Fury.

Fury entered the fight as a -1,400 favorite, but at times looked disoriented and unable to find the right moment.

The Cameroonian showed a keen sense of range control with his punches, combining it with his power and antics to make Fury hesitate to attack. Ngannou also showed the ability to land his punches. His left hook landed on Fury's temple for the only knockout of the fight.

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Now, how much of this success was because of Fury? He is the best heavyweight in the world, a status he will look to cement when he faces Oleksandr Usyk on February 17 in Riyadh, but Fury may not have taken Ngannou seriously.

Fury swears he trained hard for 12 weeks to prepare for Ngannou, but his father said otherwise. Even if he trained properly, he may have underestimated Ngannou.

There is little chance that Joshua will make the same mistake after the way Ngannou boxed. And now there are 10 videotaped rounds of Ngannou for Joshua and trainer Ben Davison to study. Often, in combat sports, young fighters find success until their opponents and coaches can study their weaknesses. If Ngannou can upset Joshua, and even defeat him, there will be no doubt that he is for real.


If Ngannou pulls off the upset, he will be a title contender. What happens if you lose?

It depends on how you lose. The unanimous opinion of fans indicates that Ngannou deserves the decision against Fury. He also won the fight on the card. Even if he hadn't, eliminating the Gypsy King would have been a victory in itself.

In his second boxing match, Ngannou is expected to offer more. If he loses another tough decision, there's no doubt he'll be a true heavyweight contender.

If he loses by a lopsided but competitive decision, he will still be a contender, and with his name recognition, should find his way to another lucrative boxing bout.

But if he's unable to compete for 10 rounds or exits early, it could mean the end of Ngannou's incredible career.

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If he pulls off the upset and defeats Joshua, Ngannou will be in line to face the winner of Fury-Usyk and another important fight in the meantime, whether it's Zhilei Zhang, Deontay Wilder or Joseph Parker.


Speaking of Wilder, wasn't Joshua supposed to fight in March?

In fact it was. Wilder and Joshua even came to an agreement before the double header on December 23 that landed them in separate fights.

Wilder, one of the most iconic punchers in heavyweight history, was the favorite to defeat Parker by -700 points. Instead, Parker won every round and was the one who threatened to score the knockout.

In the main event, Joshua took matters into his own hands when he broke the nose of Wallin, who gave Fury all he could handle in 2019, to stay on the Saudi Arabia card.

The deal was conditional on Joshua and Wilder winning, so organizers turned to Ngannou after Wilder lost.


What does this battle mean for Joshua?

Joshua was written off after back-to-back losses to Usyk in 2021 and 2022. There's no shame in losing to a fighter like Usyk, but boxing is a tough business, and it wasn't just the two losses.

Joshua hasn't really looked the same since his shocking loss to Andy Ruiz Jr. in 2019. Before that fight, Joshua was a bullying, destructive fighter with immense power. After winning the Olympic gold medal in 2012, he quickly won the heavyweight title and made some good defenses.

Specifically, he rebounded from a knockout to knock out Hall of Famer Wladimir Klitschko in the 2017 ESPN Fight of the Year and easily beat Parker the following year.

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Joshua also regained his titles from Ruiz in December 2019, but did so with a cautious, safety-focused approach to boxing that left fans wanting more. And in his next few fights, Joshua wasn't much more aggressive, which is likely due to the leftovers of his TKO loss to Ruiz.

“He knows he's weak and he knows he can get hurt and fall and get stopped and lose fights,” Wallin told ESPN before the fight. “…What made him good was that he was aggressive, a good puncher, and the type of fighter who looked to win by knockout. But he changed a lot and lost some of what made him good.”

But against Wallin, Joshua was aggressive again. He went for the KO and showed his power. He hit Wallin with his jab, breaking his nose and forcing him to fall back on his chair after the fifth round.

It is no coincidence that the performance comes in Joshua's third fight in 2023. Activity is vital in boxing. Victory also came in their first fight with Davison leading his corner.

Now, a rejuvenated and confident Joshua has the opportunity to show that he is truly back with a dominant performance against Ngannou that will set him up for a future fight with Fury.

Joshua is ESPN's No. 3 heavyweight behind Fury and Usyk.

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