Contrary to what some visionaries and even major tech brands have been saying for years,… Computer It is a device that is far from disappearing, Still very current Despite being the oldest of all the current ones.
This was evident in the past year 2023, when it is estimated that more than 187 thousand million dollars would enter the world, according to data from Mordor intelligence. Much less than smartphones, yes, but it's still a significant amount and much higher than alternatives like tablets.
Despite this, the PC market is going through a difficult time, as the decline in technology sales has affected it greatly Accumulates 7 consecutive quarters of declines As of Q3 2023, the latest data.
With the advent of the new year 2024, a new horizon for the computer industry is approaching, and most analysts agree on this 2024 will bring a return of sales growth Two years after the fall.
Analysis company Canales The company expects a 7.6% decline in units in all of 2023 compared to the previous year, although growth will return in the fourth quarter of 2023 – for which data has not yet been published – while In 2024, forecasts indicate an 8% increase.
“We are seeing signs of recovery in the PC market. We already said that in the middle of the year, and in fact now the market is already growing,” Alberto Ruano, Lenovo's general manager in Iberia, said at a press conference in Iberia. December.
Other important developments will be added to this, such as the arrival of native AI functions that processor manufacturers such as AMD and Intel have begun to support.
Computer today I asked brands, analysts and experts in the PC sector for their vision of what 2024 is expected to be like for the doyen of technological devices, both in terms of features and sales.
Effects of sales growth
Experts agree that the expected sales growth by 2024 will generate important consequences for both manufacturers and consumers.
PC brands are logically happy because they will grow in income due to increased sales, but they will also have to face some challenges in this new year. Something that could be good for you.
“Competition is expected to increase as more brands enter the market to meet the growing demand,” says José Manuel Martin, a professor at Carlimane University.
Other elements to consider are whether the increase in PC sales negatively impacts devices such as tablets and smartphones – something that seems unlikely – or whether it will make the market operate more internationally and customer service become more important.
However, the indirect effects of increased sales will be mostly positive for the sector as a whole.
“This will stimulate growth Innovate and develop new products and features that attract consumers“, highlights Martin. So your computer of 2024 will likely be more technologically advanced. Good news, don't you think?
Supply chain: The importance of not being overly optimistic
But if there is a big challenge for the industry, it is what is known as the supply chain: that is, for manufacturers to correctly calculate the amount of sales growth that can be crucial so that there are no shortages of products or components as has already happened during the Covid-19.19 pandemic.
But at the same time, too much optimism can be a disaster for brands, because in fact this is a problem that manufacturers have faced recently, since it happened in 2022 when sales were very large after the pandemic boom.
“My advice is Avoid long-term estimates, and set allocations that cover only the current and next quartersWhich allows the stock to be adjusted based on the evolution of demand given that we are in an uncertain scenario,” says Oscar Coero, Director of the Master's Degree in Cybersecurity and Business Intelligence at OBS Business School.
In 2024, topics such as the time it takes for shipments of products or components to arrive, the overall impacts of logistics on sales, or the importance of flexible production will likely be discussed again in the industry and agility, according to experts.
The end of Windows 10 updates will be the main protagonist
In 2024, an important event will occur that is expected to be a major incentive for individual and business users to decide to purchase new computers: Microsoft will stop updating Windows 10.
The most widely used desktop operating system in the world today will not receive software updates after the second half of 2023. It is scheduled to expire in October 2025when security patches stop being released due to vulnerabilities that appear.
“The end of support for Windows 10 may trigger a wave of updates for older PCs that aren't equipped to support Windows 11, but it will force manufacturers to prepare their own hardware,” says Oscar Coero, who highlights new features in AI and video games. “With it.” Which will arrive along with the new operating system.
Moreover, this has an unintended consequence that will pose a major challenge to industry and public administrations in 2024: up to 240 million computers worldwide may end up as electronic waste, but there is no regulatory issue for recycling or disposing of these devices. Personal computers in Europe, as is the case for tablets or smartphones.
What to expect in computers in 2024
The world of technology never stops and updates and new functions will remain constant as 2024 begins.
These are the most prominent developments expected at the device level, according to the experts who participated:
- High refresh rate screens also due to pressure from the gaming sector (Martín).
- New teams must be prepared for the world of AI (Quero and Martín).
- Good battery life (Martin).
- New computers will continue the trend of increasing memory and processor (Quero).
And in the program?
Microsoft
Another great deal of new features coming to computers in 2024 will not be in the form of hardware but software, both applications and, above all, operating systems, as the year is expected to be very busy.
In fact, adding to the end of support for Windows 10 are rumors of a version of Windows 12 launching at the end of the year.
These are the software developments experts are thinking about for 2024:
- The arrival of Windows 12 could represent an evolution for new PCs because it will require greater and more specific resources (Quero).
- Deeper integration between AI and cloud experiences is expected in the next version of Windows (Martín).
- Growth in ChromeOS after Chromebook Plus (Quero) launches in 2023.
- Windows PCs will continue to grow in a stable trend, as will MacOS PCs, although they will certainly slow down (Quero).
We will have to wait until the end of 2024 to see which of these trends have been achieved, but this is progress to take into account.
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