Why will fires in Patagonia become more frequent due to climate change?

Since January 25, a fire has been burning in Los Alerces National Park Chubut. I started in the area Rosales BayAnd it expanded until it affected more than 3100 hectares to Native forests, scrub and grasslands.

According to the source, the cause of the fire was intentional Provincial Fire Management Service.

The park was announced UNESCO World Heritage It occupies an area of ​​263,000 hectares. In recent years, the region has been suffering from more intense fires covering more areas, and there are already expectations of this The situation could get worseif not taken Preventative measurements In the future.

Team from the institute Research in Biodiversity and Environment (Inibiome)which depends on Conisit And the Komaho National UniversityDeveloped Algorithm Artificial learning is called Random forestThis allows future fire probability and forest vulnerability to be calculated.

They took into account the effects of greenhouse gas emissions associated with human-induced climate change, as reported in the study published in the journal. Holistic ecology.

With that tool, Thomas Kitzberger, Juan Barites A team of collaborators has determined that under the most pessimistic climate scenarios, The model estimates that the historical probability of fires will double or triple by the mid-21st century.

While by the end of the century, Fires will be seven to eight times more likely than they have been historically. Even for the most plausible greenhouse gas emission scenarios, the model predicts a doubling of fires by mid-century and a tripling or quadrupling by the end of the 21st century.

To make the prediction, the researchers developed a model linking historical fire occurrence in Andean Patagonia with historical biophysical, anthropogenic and meteorological variables that influenced fire ignition and spread.

They then entered data from forecasts of weather conditions under different scenarios for greenhouse gas emissions, which cause global warming.

“We evaluate the number of fires in the area and climate variability, which includes changes in temperature and precipitation, among other factors. The tool has allowed us to predict the probability of fires in relation to future climate,” the doctor said. paritisIn an interview with information.

“as there High probability of higher temperatures and lower precipitation “In this region over the next few years, the risk of vegetation fires will be higher,” he noted. It all depends on the climate negotiations taking place at the global level. if Greenhouse gasesBaritsis explained that the scenario for Patagonian forests could be better.

The scientist stressed that it is necessary today to improve prevention measures, including population education and land use planning. “Residents – including residents and tourists – should be aware of fire risks if they live in areas too close to vegetation,” he added.

Forest fires in Los Alerces National Park and private fields have been active for more than ten days and have already consumed 3,147 hectares of local forest. Brigades from Chubut Province and other jurisdictions and Federal Fire Management SystemWith the help of meteorologists.

Consult him informationthe doctor Guillermo DeFosset“In the national park area there was a lot of biomass, and two fires appear to have been started deliberately at night,” commented the Secretary of Science and Technology of Chubut and Konset, a researcher on vegetation fires. “It is under investigation.”

supposed to, The two outbreaks spread and merged into one. They were not attacked quickly because it happened at night. In the following days there were strong warm winds, which helped the fire spread and enter private fields.

He added that the necessary capabilities were provided to put out the fire, including more than 200 members of the brigade, but the weather conditions did not help. There was a day and a half during which planes and helicopters were unable to operate due to strong winds. This means that it is a fire that is difficult to control due to environmental conditions, especially winds and high temperatures.

There were also other influencing factors. According to Baritsis, it is a phenomenon Boy The Antarctic Oscillation affects meteorological conditions in northern Patagonia.